Solana Dips Below $200 the past 24 hours: Complete analysis

Solana (SOL) fell 0.73% in the past 24 hours to $199.81, continuing a 16.7% weekly drop. The fall comes as traders worry about ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) approvals, weak price charts, and new SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) investigations.

ETF Uncertainty Makes Traders Nervous

Big firms like Fidelity and VanEck updated their Solana ETF plans this week to include staking features (earning rewards by locking up tokens). But all eyes are on Grayscale’s Solana ETF, with an important SEC decision coming on October 10.

Many traders expect delays or even rejection, similar to what happened before Bitcoin ETFs were approved. Solana’s 24-hour turnover ratio (3.13%) shows low liquidity, meaning small sell orders can move prices quickly.

“The market is nervous,” one analyst said. “If the SEC delays again, SOL could drop below key support.”

Weak Technical Charts Add Pressure

SOL broke below its $203.08 pivot point (a key price level), with resistance now at $204.41 (Fibonacci level). The MACD (-5.67, a momentum indicator) shows a bearish trend, while the RSI (34.75, a strength indicator) is close to oversold.

If the price closes under $200, traders warn it could fall to $191.13, the low from September 27. Long-term traders still see support at the 200-day EMA ($165.98, moving average) — but short-term momentum is weak.

Regulatory Concerns Increase Risk

The SEC recently started an investigation into 200+ crypto treasury firms (companies holding large amounts of crypto). While Solana itself is not targeted, 66% of those firms now have mNAV (market Net Asset Value) below 1 — a sign of financial stress. If they sell holdings to balance their portfolios, it could add more selling pressure on SOL.

Network Growth Positive, but Whales Selling

On the technical side, Solana continues to improve. The new Alpenglow upgrade aims for 150ms (milliseconds) block finality, making transactions faster. The network now handles 60 million compute units per block, up 20% from Q2 2025.

However, big holders (“whales”) have been selling. Galaxy Digital recently unstaked $41 million in SOL, and others took profits after strong gains. This increases short-term supply and can limit price recovery.

Outlook

Solana’s next big test is the Grayscale ETF decision on October 10. If approved, institutional investors could bring fresh money into SOL. But if delayed or rejected, the price might slide toward $190 support.

For now, the $191–$200 zone will decide if this is a short correction or the start of a longer downtrend.

Key level to watch: $204.41 — a close above it could signal a rebound.

TLDR (Too Long; Didn’t Read): Solana is stuck between ETF hopes and regulatory worries. Whales are selling, and traders are cautious ahead of the October 10 SEC decision.